Put on a Limb

Out on a Limb, 10 Years Later

BY KATIE MULDOON

May 1994 saw me standing in front of way too many people making “out on a limb” predictions about 30 topics, much of it big stuff, like war and peace and how such major happenings affected direct marketing. I felt comfortable putting myself on the spot because my first prediction was that I would be retired by 1999. Based partially on that non-event, I thought it might be interesting to recall what I forecast 10 years ago and see how it compared with what actually happened.

There are 30 predictions. They'll all appear in this column over the next two issues in a not-quite-even split of 14/16. This time, I'll look at the “big picture” predictions.

Let's say each one is worth 10 points to see how close my crystal ball comes to a perfect score of 300. (The predictions are in italics.)

1. Katie Muldoon will retire. Not. Score: 0.

2. There will be a more peaceful world with minimal American responsibility, as the United Nations will handle peacekeeping. Since Americans won't be bearing the cost of a large military force, there'll be more consumer spending. Would that this had come true. Half right, but would gladly give up the consumer spending part to get the other half right. Score: 5.

3.Decreased crime, resulting in folks spending more time at “entertainment” malls than ordering from catalogs. Crime actually dropped almost 30% from 1993 to 2002, according to the FBI, but the malls have become anything but entertaining. Score: 5.

4. AIDS and viral-type diseases will increase, resulting in a more closed society — and so, more shopping will be done by mail from the safety of one's home. Unfortunately, the United Nations says global AIDS “shows no signs of abating…3 million died in 2003 — the highest ever.” Plus other baddies such as SARS, Asian bird flu, anthrax and so on keep cropping up. Yes, mail order has grown, but probably not due much to these fears. Score: 8.

5. Food will be plentiful, and with full tummies, people will buy more non-essentials. The U.S. government office that predicted improved yield techniques closed in '95 but genetic engineering has grown like wildfire, increasing production in everything from fish, to cotton, to trees, to dairy products, and so on. Increased production, however, has created worries about genetic engineering. Food is more plentiful, even in Third World countries, but fears about its safety are sky-high. Yes, people are buying more non-essentials. Score: 8.

6. Water will be even scarcer, possibly affecting the location of mail order companies. A United Nations water-development report says that one-third of the world is already in trouble and that the most serious challenge of the 21st century could be water. For example, Florida, with its rapidly growing population, is taking costly steps to build a desalinization plant, cleaning up the Everglades, building reservoirs and more. But will it be enough? Yet companies keep moving to Florida, so water scarcity doesn't seem to be a factor in location choices. Score: 7.

7.Air pollution will increase, causing a resurgence of concern about the environment. The Environmental Protection Agency says that air pollution has dramatically decreased, yet the Foundation for Clean Air Progress reports that 66% of Americans feel it has gotten worse. The use of recycled catalog paper, a sort of bellwether for environmental concerns in our industry, goes up and down: 15% in 1999, 10% in 2000, and 12% in 2002. Score: 1 (for consumer perception of air pollution being worse).

8. Integrated world economy resulting in international product sourcing. According to Catalog Age magazine, overseas sourcing is down. My guess is that this is due to the ease of Internet sourcing, higher prices in the Far East and health scares. Score: 0.

9. Traditional education will fail — another reason we will need more in-house training. In “Empower America,” William J. Bennett, secretary of education under President Ronald Reagan, wrote in 1999: “According to U.S. manufacturers, 40% of all 17-year-olds do not have the math skills and 60% lack the reading skills to hold down a production job at a manufacturing company. Seventy-six percent of college professors and 63% of employers believe that a high school diploma is no guarantee that the typical student has learned the basics.” Sadly, this shows that we will continue to have a need to help train employees. Score: 10.

10. Microsegmentation likely in the catalog industry, resulting in more boutique books that target consumers in their own “group.” Big catalogs, such as Montgomery Ward, Sears, Penney's and Spiegel have either disappeared or struggled; niche books have generally blossomed. Score: 10.

11. The rich will get richer and the poor poorer. More segmented databases will come about as a result. The Congressional Budget Office reports that the gap between rich and poor more than doubled from 1979 to 2000, with an after-tax increase of 201.1% for the rich and a measly 13% for the poor. Segmentation of data is, of course, more than ever the answer for marketers. Score: 10.

12. The baby boomers will fight aging, so they'll turn to products that promise lasting health and beauty. In August 2001 BusinessWeek noted that boomers had picked the right time to enter the twilight years. “Huge advances over the past two decades in biotechnology, drug discovery methods and in deciphering cellular behavior are finally coalescing to produce drugs and medical devices for conditions that had been virtually untreatable.” Score: 10.

13. Baby boomers will turn inward, resisting anything that gets in the way of their enjoying the time they have left. Not really. Boomers absolutely refuse to acknowledge that they are getting old. Tiny “old age” signs, such as wanting a smaller house but with more amenities, are just the beginning. Score: 4.

14. Decreasing birthrate, resulting in fewer children's catalogs and more pet catalogs. The birthrate did decline (slightly, from 6.5% of women in 1994 to 6.2% in 2002). The American Pet Products Manufacturers Association's new survey shows that 64.2 million households report owning a pet, up from 54 million a decade ago. If there aren't more pet catalogs, there should be. Score: 10.

See Looking Back on a Decade for the final score!